2023 MLS Regular Season Record: 13W - 12D - 9L
Key Takeaways from 2023
What I said last winter:
Sort out the salary cap
Improve the midfield
Stop missing big chances
Improve at goalkeeping
They should make playoffs
What happened:
They sorted out the salary cap, but it took time
They had one of their best transfer windows this summer, including what could be a top 10 signing of all-time with Tristan Muyumba
They had the second-best Goals - Expected Goals statline in the league (+14.7)
They ranked worst in save percentage (57.9%) and third-to-last in post-shot expected goals (-6.3)
Made playoffs but lost to eventual champion, Columbus Crew, in best of three series
Summer Window Surge
Atlanta United entered the season seeking redemption after an underwhelming 2022, failing to qualify for playoffs the second time in three years. Going into the preseason the major stories were replacing club legend and all-time scoring leader Josef Martínez, and managing the salary-cap challenges under new club president Gareth Lagerway while still acquiring fresh talent.
The Lagerway era commenced with the transfer of centre-forward Giorgos Giakoumakis from Celtic, along with free-agent winger Derrick Ettiene Jr. Additionally, depth was added at goalkeeper in the event Brad Guzan struggled after returning from an Achilles tear. Also returning from season-long injuries were USMNT centre-back Miles Robinson and midfielder Ozzie Alonso.
The season kicked off dramatically as World Cup champion Thiago Almada scored two stunning goals in the last 10 minutes against San Jose. However, it also echoed struggles from the previous season: sloppy goals conceded, possession dominance without creating many chances, and heavy reliance on optimistic crosses from the full-backs. While Atlanta showcased strong home performances, they struggled on the road, experiencing the worst-ever loss in club history against Columbus.
Despite this, there were positives. Almada was having a career season and Giakoumakis made his mark by tying the record for consecutive scoring matches. But the need to bring in help at the wings and midfield grew more apparent each match. And those needs were met.
Atlanta had arguably one of its best transfer windows in years over the summer. They offloaded designated player and right-winger Luiz Araújo to Flamengo and brought in wingers Saba Lobzhanidze from Hatayspor and Xande Silva on loan from Dijon. They also secured Tristan Muyumba from Guingamp in Ligue 2, filling a long needed gap in their midfield.
Following an abrupt exit from Leagues’ Cup, the club started playing the style of soccer I think Pineda has envisioned since he took the helm. I’ll argue it’s the best soccer Atlanta has played in years. They prioritize possession, and with Muyumba and Almada they’re able to transition smoothly down the middle, which was lacking at the start of the year. Simultaneously, their speed on the wings, combined with Brooks Lennon’s dangerous crosses and Giakoumakis aerial prowess, grants flexibility in their attack. It sounds simple — perhaps I’m oversimplifying it — but it made a significant difference in their on-field success.
Atlanta primarily lined up in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 formation throughout the season. Occasionally they shifted to a three-back system due to injuries, resulting in limited success (2W - 0D - 4L) when starting with it.
The Five Stripes clinched the league's highest goal tally this season, with Giakoumakis finishing second in the golden boot race and Almada setting a club record for most assists in a single season. They also greatly improved in Goals - Expected Goals (G - xG), which I consider a reflection of shot-taking ability.
In 2022, Atlanta ranked near the bottom in G-xG but made a strong rebound, securing the second-highest difference. It’s worth noting that there’s debate over whether this stat is more indicative of “luck.” However, I lean more toward it representing shot-taking ability, though regressing to the mean remains a concern — looking at you Austin FC.
Some might assume Almada was the driving force for Atlanta’s overperformance, but he was actually closer to the league average. The real factor was Giakoumakis netting 17 goals compared to 12.6 xG.
Atlanta also excelled in most possession-based stats, improving in accurate long balls, possession won, and duels won compared to their 2022 figures. The improvements weren’t drastic but still noteworthy. However, let’s address the glaring issue: goalkeeping.
While it wasn’t as much of a goalkeeping committee like in 2022, Guzan did miss time due to an LCL injury, and once again, Atlanta finished last in save percentage across the league. However, save percentage isn’t a great indicator, but post-shot expected goals (PSxG) I believe is.
Unfortunately, Atlanta struggled here as well, registering at -6.3. The third-lowest performance in the league.
Individually, Guzan, Clément Diop, and Quentin Westberg fell below the trend line among the league's keepers for PSxG.
2023 was a transitional year for Atlanta. On-loan players Ezequiel Barco and Marcelino Moreno limited roster flexibility due to the league’s salary cap but have since been transferred. Immediate roster needs were addressed, but more challenges await this offseason. A backline revamp is anticipated with Miles Robinson gone, and Atlanta needs a long-term answer at goalkeeping — new signing Josh Cohen is the hopeful answer — because Guzan is nearing retirement.
Overall, there's lots to be excited for in the next season.
Top Sorare Fantasy Performers
Stats are for all Atlanta United matches in 2023
Goalkeeper: Brad Guzan | L15: 44 | 60+ pts games: 8 | Clean sheets: 7 | Penalties saved: 0
Defender: Brooks Lennon | L15: 51 | 60+ pts games: 16 | Goals: 4 | Assists: 12 | Clean sheets: 8
Midfielder: Thiago Almada | L15: 69 | 60+ pts games: 20 | Goals: 13 | Assists: 16
Forward : Giorgos Giakoumakis | L15: 53 | 60+ pts games: 16 | Goals: 19 | Assists: 2
Midfielder: Saba Lobjanidze | L15: 50 | 60+ pts games: 6 | Goals: 3 | Assists: 4
2024 Outlook
Last Updated - 2/4/2024
GIF Rating:
Outgoing Players
Machop Chol - Centre-forward - Option Declined
Jackson Conway - Centre-forward - Option Declined
Clément Diop - Goalkeeper - Option Declined
Justin Garces - Goalkeeper - Option Declined
Ozzie Alonso - Defensive Midfielder - Out of Contract (Retiring)
Miguel Berry - Centre-forward - Out of Contract
Miles Robinson - Centre-back - Out of Contract
Matheus Rossetto - Central Midfielder - Out of Contract
Amar Sejdic - Central Midfielder - Out of Contract
Juanjo Purata - Centre-back - Loan Expired
Garrison Tubbs - Centre-back - Traded to DC United for $125k in General Allocation Money (GAM)
Franco Ibarra - Defensive Midfielder - Loan to Rosario Central
Santiago Sosa - Defensive Midfielder - Loan to Racing Club
Incoming Players
Xande Silva - Winger - Loan option to buy exercised
Josh Cohen - Goalkeeper - Signed as a free agent
Derrick Williams - Centre-back - Signed via re-entry draft
Stian Gregersen - Centre-back - Transfer from Bordeaux
Dax McCarty - Defensive Midfielder - Signed as a free agent
Bartosz Slisz - Defensive Midfielder - Transfer from Legia Warszawa
One Window at a Time
Atlanta started the preseason knowing they’d need to first and foremost replace Miles Robinson's who has since signed for FC Cincinnati. Stian Gregersen was brought over from Ligue 2 to fill that role, which continues Atlanta’s streak in the second tier of France. They’ve also added Derrick Williams via the re-entry draft.
In midfield, Matheus Rossetto's contract wasn't renewed, while Franco Ibarra and Santiago Sosa have both been loaned out to Argentine clubs. Their exits, however, do not free up U22 spots. Dax McCarty signed on as a free agent and should be a key player for closing out matches. Atlanta also secured the transfer of Bartosz Slisz from Legia Warszawa. Slisz will pair up alongside Tristan Muyumba and could create one of the top midfield duo’s in the league. Muyumba’s talent was already on display last season, and Slisz’ and Warsaw have faired well in both domestic and European competitions. I’m excited.
Lastly, Josh Cohen has signed as a free agent and will compete with Brad Guzan for the starting job at goalkeeper. In Atlanta’s most recent friendly, Cohen started over Guzan in a likely starting 11 for week 1. Keep an eye out on who starts in Atlanta’s final two friendlies.
Fortunately for Atlanta, Thiago Almada did not leave this window. There was rumored interest from Atletico Madrid and Fiorentina, but no offers were made that matched Atlanta’s target price of ~$30m. I do think he leaves this summer, but that also gives Atlanta more room to move for another European DP.
Overall, this is the strongest roster going into a new season Atlanta has had in probably four years, and every move Atlanta needed to make over the winter played out in their favor. If I had to make one criticism, it’s losing two u22 spots with Sosa and Ibarra’s loan, but that’s just an artifact of the roster building in years prior to Gareth. I’m gearing up for an exciting year.