2023 MLS Regular Season Record: 10W - 9D - 15L
Key Takeaways from 2023
What I said last winter:
Addressing backline depth is crucial
They improved their attacking depth, and will need consistent delivery from 2022’s top performers (Driussi, Fagúndez, et al.)
They’ll not perform as well as 2022, but make playoffs
What happened:
Centre-back became a key issue for their entire season with players like Alex Ring having to slot in, as more players went down due to injury
They regressed in their Goals - xG stat, and overall in their attack, scoring 49 regular season goals compared to 65 in 2022
They traded Diego Fagúndez to the LA Galaxy after he lost his starting spot, and missed playoffs
Regression to the Mean
A tad ironic Austin’s emblem is a tree, and a tree became the opening centerpiece of their struggles this year when they lost to Violette FC in Concacaf Champion’s League. There’s a lot to unpack about what went wrong after the club’s successful sophomore season in 2022. The biggest struggles were maintaining their possession-centric style, and the backline unable to keep opponents from having a field day against goalkeeper Brad Stuver.
The team experimented with various formations due to injuries, favoring the 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, but actually had a higher win-rate with the 3-4-3 and 4-4-2 (5 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses).
Star midfielder, Sebastián Driussi once again was the centerpiece in the attack, and Emiliano Rigoni improved his production registering 5 goals and 4 assists in MLS play. Austin’s attacking stats weren’t far off from their previous season, except for one, Goals - Expected Goals (xG).
Austin serves as a prime example of the concern for teams that overperform in G - xG during a season. What occurs when they regress to the mean? Well, the outcome varies. If teams improve in other areas, it possibly balances out, but if they regress everywhere, it likely results in more losses.
Driussi fell the most in his goal-scoring production. In 2022, he scored 22 goals compared to 14 xG, while this past season, he netted 11 versus 10.3 xG. Other key scorers for the club included left-back Jon Gallagher (5 goals vs. 2.5 xG), Gyasi Zardes (6 goals vs. 5 xG) and Ethan Finlay (5 goals vs. 4 xG).
In 2022, Austin secured positions in the top 10 for pass accuracy, duels lost, possession lost, and successful final third passes. However, in 2023, they only ranked among the top 10 in possession lost. The most significant decline was observed in their final third passes, averaging nearly 20 fewer passes into the opponents' end compared to the previous year.
Regarding goalkeeping, Stuver delivered another strong performance despite facing the second-highest number of shots on target by opponents in MLS.
Stuver started every match this year and, despite a few errors in goal during the summer, maintained a positive post-shot expected goals performance of +1.9.
Going into the next season, Austin are in the midst of rebuilding their roster. While key players like Driussi and Ring will return, providing a solid framework, they still need to strengthen the supporting cast to ensure a return to the playoffs. The club will look to new sporting director Rodolfo Borrell to lead that charge after former director Claudio Reyna stepped down midseason amid controversy related to Gregg Berhalter.
Top Sorare Fantasy Performers
Goalkeeper: Brad Stuver | L15: 38 | 60+ pts games: 8 | Clean sheets: 6 | Penalties saved: 0
Defender: Jon Gallagher | L15: 40 | 60+ pts games: 14 | Goals: 5 | Assists: 4 | Clean sheets: 6
Midfielder: Sebastián Driussi | L15: 51 | 60+ pts games: 13 | Goals: 11 | Assists: 4
Forward : Gyasi Zardes | L15: 33 | 60+ pts games: 8 | Goals: 6 | Assists: 2
Midfielder: Dani Pereira | L15: 45 | 60+ pts games: 11 | Goals: 0 | Assists: 5
2024 Outlook
Last Updated 2/4/2024
GIF Rating:
Outgoing Players
Charlie Asensio - Left-back - Option Declined
Will Bruin - Centre-forward - Option Declined
Sofiane Djeffal - Central Midfielder - Option Declined
Kipp Keller - Centre-back - Option Declined
Adam Lundkvist - Left-back - Option Declined
Alfonso Ocampo-Chávez - Centre-forward - Option Declined
Rodney Redes - Winger - Option Declined
Memo Rodriguez - Left Midfielder - Option Declined
Maxi Urruti - Centre-forward - Option Declined
Brandan Craig - Centre-back - Loan expired
Nick Lima - - Traded to New England Revolution in exchange for $275k in General Allocation Money (GAM)
Incoming Players
Stefan Cleveland - Goalkeeper - Signed as a free agent
Jader Obrian - Winger - Selected in MLS re-entry draft
Guilherme Biro - Left-back - Transfer from Coritiba
I’m always wrong about this team
Austin FC surprised me in both 2022 and 2023 for different reasons, so take what I say with a grain of salt. So far, they’ve parted ways with eleven players, creating a decent chunk of salary cap and roster space to build with.
However, Austin have no open designated player spots. Alex Ring triggered a contract extension for meeting benchmarks, and young midfielder Owen Wolff shared minutes with Ring throughout last season. If they think Wolff is ready to takeover the role, Ring might find himself surplus to requirements among Wolff, Jhojan Valencia, Dani Pereira, and himself.
Austin added Jader Obrian via the expansion draft, and presumably he takes over the left-winger spot. Jhohan Romaña was supposed to return from loan, but that loan has since been extended. So, same as it was last year, Austin need to address their backline depth.
As for my current take on Austin, I don't foresee them becoming a Supporter’s Shield or MLS Cup contender this year, but I’m optimistic they’ll improve from last year. The roster needs improvement I think, but maybe they’re holding off until the summer to make any major moves.
Projected Starting Lineup
Most spots are accounted for in the current roster. Austin need a new right-back, and if they can find a way to open a DP spot, I’d like to see them go after a new centre-forward to pair with Driussi.
Matt Hedges will be healthy again, and brings much needed experience to the backline, but they’re still thin at depth there.