2023 MLS Regular Season Record: 10W - 13D - 11L
Key Takeaways from 2023
Can’t Hold’on
Charlotte led in regular-season matches 21 times last year, but only ten of those games resulted in wins, and eight ended in draws. This translates to just under a 50% success rate in matches won when leading, marking the highest total for dropped points at 25. To put it in perspective, those 25 dropped points would place them second in the Supporters’ Shield standings, a stark contrast to their eventual finish of ninth in the Eastern Conference.
Charlotte predominantly lined up in a 4-3-3 formation last season, with either Karol Świderski or Enzo Copetti as the center-forward, Ashley Westwood and Brandt Bronico at midfield with Świderski at times, and a backline featuring the center-back pairing of Adilson Malanda and Andrew Privett. The wings and fullbacks saw some rotation but typically included Nathan Byrne, Kamil Jóźwiak, and Kerwin Vargas.
A immediately noticeable issue for Charlotte is chance creation. While they scored at an almost league-average rate per match, they also registered the third-fewest shots on target and created the second-fewest big chances. What's intriguing is their ranking as the third-highest in penalty area entries, maintaining a consistently high position in that category throughout the season.
In the category of Goals minus Expected Goals (G - xG), Charlotte boasted the fifth-highest net-positive total. The shots they did take were well executed, translating into goals at a high rate. However, the challenge lay in their inability to create these opportunities consistently.
Only a few players finished with a negative G - xG, and those were Derrick Jones (0 goals vs. 1.9 xG), Brandt Bronico (1 goal vs. 1.3 xG), and Brecht Dejaegere (1 goal vs. 1.1 xG).
Everyone else was at or above the trend line. Their lead goal scorer was Świderski (12 goals vs. 11 xG), followed by Copetti (6 goals vs. 6 xG), and the biggest overachiever in this category was Vargas (4 goals vs. 1.6 xG).
In terms of possession, Charlotte faced challenges in winning duels, ending with one of the lowest win rates in MLS. Despite this, they managed to have the majority of possession in 22 out of their 35 total MLS matches.
Starting goalkeeper, Kristijan Kahlina, missed the first two months, during that time backup keepers George Marks and Pablo Sisniega took over the role. When Kahlina was in goal, he posted some of the better numbers among MLS keepers. Both the backup keepers struggled along with the defense who allowed the eight-most shots on target.
Charlotte’s goalkeeping trio finished with a +2.6 post-shot expected goals, with Kahlina being the main contributor to their net-positive performance. Kahlina concluded the year with +4.5, while Marks finished exactly at 0, and Sisniega at -1.9.
Charlotte has one of the strongest fanbases at the moment, and I saw a fair share of their frustration through my favorite Discord channel and Twitter. Yes, they made the playoffs, but that was only because they expanded it. In other years, the season would have been considered a disappointment, and based on the stats, a frustrating one at that.
The club parted ways with manager Christian Lattanzio after the season ended with a loss in the play-in round, and made a statement about their expectations for success with the hiring of Dean Smith. Whether it will work, I'm not sure. Nothing so far this offseason has really unfolded the way they probably hoped.
Top Sorare Fantasy Performers
Goalkeeper: Kristijan Kahlina | L15: 52 | 60+ pts games: 9 | Clean sheets: 7 | Penalties saved: 0
Defender: Adilson Malanda | L15: 45 | 60+ pts games: 6 | Goals: 0 | Assists: 1 | Clean sheets: 6
Midfielder: Ashley Westwood | L15: 51 | 60+ pts games: 9 | Goals: 3 | Assists: 3
Forward : Kerwin Vargas | L15: 44 | 60+ pts games: 8 | Goals: 5 | Assists: 3
Extra: Karol Świderski | L15: 54 | 60+ pts games: 15 | Goals: 14 | Assists: 7
2024 Outlook
Outgoing Players
Harrison Afful - Right back - Option Declined
McKinze Gaines - Winger - Option Declined
Chris Hegardt - Defensive Midfielder - Option Declined
Pablo Sisniega - Goalkeeper - Option Declined
Jan Sobocinski - Centreback - Option Declined
Adrian Zendejas - Goalkeeper - Option Declined
Derrick Jones - Centre Midfielder - Out of Contract
Justin Meram - Winger - Out of Contract (in talks with club for new contract)
Incoming Players
David Bingham - Goalkeeper - Signed as a free agent
You know the season starts in less than a month, right?
Dean Smith will have his hands full when the season kicks off. As of now, Charlotte has only secured a backup keeper, and all the bids they've submitted for players have failed to result in a transfer. In addition, there are rumors of Karol Świderski being loaned out to Hellas Verona in Serie A, and Enzo Copetti has also been linked to River Plate. Kamil Jóźwiak has reportedly requested a transfer and hasn't joined the preseason camp as well.
I admit I hadn't paid much attention to Charlotte’s offseason beyond the Dean Smith hiring, but this is a pretty abysmal start. Improvements to their backline seem necessary, and now they could potentially be down one designated player spot depending on how the loan for Świderski is structured. They will still need to replace Jóźwiak, who is also a designated player, if he leaves.
At the moment, I'm ringing the alarm bells for Charlotte fans. Perhaps Smith can bring stability to the roster, but taking steps backward while the rest of the conference improves isn't the best strategy. Sorry, Sir Minty.