2023 MLS Regular Season Record: 10W - 11D - 13L
Key Takeaways from 2023
What I said last winter:
They will need their summer 2022 signings to deliver
The club historically has been one of the lowest spenders in the league
They should add another attacker on a likely designated player contract
An additional centre-back would be helpful to bolster the backline and compete for the starting job
Despite their under-investment compared to other clubs, they would still make playoffs
What happened:
Mender Garcia underperformed, delivering 3 goals and 1 assist in 30 total appearances, and not starting most matches
Emmanuel Reynoso refused to report to training camp at the first part of the season, leaving many wondering if he’d return at all. He returned in June
They added Teemu Pukki in the summer transfer window as a designated player and transferred striker Luis Amarilla to Mazatlán
Some depth at centre-back was added but no big spending really happened there
The club agreed to a transfer for former New York Red Bulls player Caden Clark
End of the Heath Era
It was another challenging year for the Loons, yet they nearly clinched a playoff spot despite their struggles. The season started with one of the strangest preseason stories of star midfielder Emmanuel Reynoso reportedly refusing to return to the club for their preseason camp. The club refused to pay him during this period, but whatever was going on his life kept him from being with the club until the start of June.
During his absence, Minnesota posted a 5W - 4D - 6L record. Not a terrible start given the circumstances, but still not the best. The Loons predominantly lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation both before and after Reynoso's return. The players below were the most commonly featured, but they did rotate their fullbacks often.
Looking at the chart below, there's a noticeable decline in the number of chances created during Reynoso's absence. He’s central to their attack and also the primary set-piece taker. Pukki took over the centre-forward role, supported by Bongokuhle Hlongwane and Hassani Dotson on the wings.
Minnesota did well in creating chances, but they struggled in finishing. The club scored the eleventh lowest goal total and missed the third-most big chances.
The Loons ranked third from the bottom in Goals minus Expected Goals, underperforming by -11.5. Undoubtedly, this was an immense factor in their struggles this year. The ability to create ample chances and frequently fall short in finishing was a frustrating aspect and seemingly straightforward to address—though, in reality, it's easier said than done.
The primary cause of their poor finishing unfortunately centers around one player, Hlongwane. He notably underperformed his G - xG by 5 goals. Additionally, other attackers like Dotson (3 goals vs. 5.1 xG) and Jeong Sang-Bin (1 goal vs. 3.8 xG) struggled, but Hlongwane's difference takes the silver medal for largest negative margin in the league. Seattle's Heber taking the gold.
On a more positive note, Pukki was their most successful scorer with 10 goals vs. 6.3 expected.
In terms of passing, duels won, and possession won, Minnesota struggled across the board, finishing in the bottom 10 for win percentage in all three categories. This is an area I believe the club needs to address most in the offseason.
They did have majority possession in nearly half their matches, but also finished in the top ten for effective clearances and blocked crosses by their defenders. To me, this indicates their opponents are sending an alarming number of crosses into Minnesota's box.
Goalkeeping posed a challenge for the Loons as well. They exhibited a below-average save rate and faced an above-average number of shots on-target from their opponents. Additionally, the frequency of shots against them incrased as the season advanced.
Dayne St. Clair, Minnesota's main goalkeeper for most of the season, ended up slightly below zero in post-shot expected goals.
Minnesota came close to securing a playoff spot but fell just short. In October, they bid farewell to their sole manager throughout their time in MLS to-date, Adrian Heath, due to the team’s struggles, and they've yet to announce a permanent replacement. However, the club did make a significant move by appointing Khaled El-Ahmad as their new sporting director, hinting at a shift in strategy.
Despite these changes, being a Loons fan must have been a frustrating experience last year. Personally, I won't feel confident about the club's direction until I see the coach they choose to lead the team post-Heath.
Top Sorare Fantasy Performers
Goalkeeper: Dayne St. Clair | L15: 43 | 60+ pts games: 10 | Clean sheets: 9 | Penalties saved: 0
Defender: Michael Boxall | L15: 43 | 60+ pts games: 9 | Goals: 2 | Assists: 0 | Clean sheets: 8
Midfielder: Emanuel Reynoso | L15: 59 | 60+ pts games: 15 | Goals: 8 | Assists: 7
Forward: Teemu Pukki | L15: 62 | 60+ pts games: 8 | Goals: 10 | Assists: 2
Extra: Hassani Dotson | L15: 55 | 60+ pts games: 13 | Goals: 4 | Assists: 4
2024 Outlook
Lasted Updated 2/4/2024
GIF Rating:
Outgoing Players
Bakaye Dibassy - Centre-back - Option Declined
Eric Dick - Goalkeeper - Option Declined
Fred Emmings - Goalkeeper - Option Declined (in talks with club for new contract)
Ménder García - Centre-forward - Option Declined (Designated Player)
Jan Gregus - Central Midfielder - Option Declined
Emmanuel Iwe - Left Midfielder - Option Declined
Ryen Jiba - Left-back - Option Declined
Ismael Tajouri-Shradi - Winger - Option Declined (in talks with club for new contract)
Cameron Dunbar - Winger - Out of Contract
Brent Kallman - Centre-back - Out of Contract
Ethan Bristow - Left-back - Loaned to Stockport County
Incoming Players
Caden Clark - Attacking Midfielder - Transfer from Red Bull Leipzig
Derek Dodson - Right-back - Free transfer from Charleston Battery
Jordan Adebayo-Smith - Centre-forward - Transfer from New England Revolution II
Alejandro Bran - Defensive Midfielder - Loan from Herediano
Carlos Harvey - Defensive Midfielder - Transfer from Phoenix Rising
Moses Nyeman - Defensive Midfielder - Signed from waivers
Victor Eriksson - Centre-back - Signed from IFK Värnamo
Confusion and Worry
At the time of writing, there is no permanent manager for Minnesota United. In fact, they parted ways with their interim and appointed a new interim. Minnesota have, at least, made new signings, but their transfer strategy has been limited to the signing of Victor Eriksson from Sweden — I do like this move a lot — and USL/reserve side players. Nothing against the USL or the players, but they’re up against clubs bringing in the likes of Messi and Suarez, and the Loons are signing players who most likely would play on MLS reserve sides to continue developing.
Furthermore, I’m confused about how they plan to line up. They have two CAMs with Caden Clark and Emmanuel Reynoso, so someone will need to play out of their natural position or Clark will start on the bench, which seems like a waste.
In terms of needs, they need support at left-back and I think they’d benefit from a designated player at central midfield, and do have an open DP spot. Overall, the more I analyze this Loons' squad, the more worried I get. They haven’t really upgraded many of their positions, and, without a permanent manager, how will they define their style/tactics?
My general take: Minnesota fans should mentally prepare for a challenging season.