2023 MLS Regular Season Record: 13W - 10D - 11L
Key Takeaways from 2023
What I said last winter:
Unfortunately did not get to writing an outlook for Nashville
What happened:
They started the year out well and had great form going into Leagues’ Cup
They made it all the way to the finals in Leagues’ Cup, hosting a wild match in Nashville, losing to Inter Miami in penalty kicks
The attack disappeared and they struggled to score in their last seven matches
They were shut-out in both legs of their playoff series against Orlando
The Ball won’t Roll Itself into the Net
I’m not entirely sure what to make of this outgoing Nashville squad. There are bright spots to highlight, such as their qualification for the Concacaf Champions Cup, a first in the club’s history. On the other hand, their attack seemed to vanish toward the end of the season. Nashville managed to score in only one of their last seven games, which included two scoreless playoff matches.
The club primarily lined up in a classic 4-4-2 formation but also experimented with a 4-2-3-1, 4-3-1-2, and 5-3-2 in various matches. Historically, they’ve been a solid defensive team, with the backline anchored by designated player and USMNT center-back Walker Zimmerman. On the attacking front, they rely heavily on 2022 MVP and Golden Boot winner Hany Mukhtar.
The problem is Mukhtar was on an island at times last year for getting support in the attack. The club recorded the twelfth lowest number of big chances created and the sixth lowest shots on target. Most of their chances occurred between the end of April and June when they went on an 8W - 2D - 2L run.
Nashville’s Goals minus Expected Goals performance was negative. It wasn’t alarmingly negative, but low enough to suggest their finishing and shot-taking need improvement for them to return to their 2022 form.
Hany Mukhtar (15 goals vs. 13.9 xG), Fafà Picault (5 goals vs. 3.9 xG), and Randal Leal (3 goals vs. 1.6 xG) were the top overperformers in Goals - xG.
Teal Burnbury stood as the club’s largest underperformer with 3 goals compared to 6.3 xG, followed by Jacob Shaffelburg—3 goals vs. 4.1 xG.
The team performed well in the majority of possession stats, but they struggled to advance the ball into their opponent’s final third, as indicated by their lack of scoring towards the end of the season.
Joe Willis once again took the lead in goal for the majority of the year and had yet another standout season. While Nashville boasts a solid backline, Willis notably topped the charts in save percentage, contributing to the team conceding the fewest goals in the league.
Reinforcing Willis’ performance is his prowess in post-shot expected goals. Willis finished at +3.8, while backup keeper Elliot Panicco contributed another +0.7 in his two regular-season appearances.
Nashville made it to the playoffs, but their form in the last part of the season wasn't great. They struggled to create chances and score goals.
To push forward and grab some silverware—especially given how close they were this season—they need someone to step up to help out Mukhtar. Striker and designated player Sam Surridge joined during the summer but didn't contribute much outside of his performance in Leagues’ Cup.
Top Sorare Fantasy Performers
Goalkeeper: Joe Willis | L15: 49 | 60+ pts games: 10 | Clean sheets: 10 | Penalties saved: 0
Defender: Walker Zimmerman | L15: 58 | 60+ pts games: 11 | Goals: 4 | Assists: 1 | Clean sheets: 12
Midfielder: Hany Mukhtar | L15: 55 | 60+ pts games: 20 | Goals: 17 | Assists: 14
Forward: Fafà Picault | L15: 44 | 60+ pts games: 9 | Goals: 8 | Assists: 1
Extra: Shaq Moore | L15: 51 | 60+ pts games: 11 | Goals: 1 | Assists: 4
2024 Outlook
Last Updated 2/4/2024
GIF Rating:
Outgoing Players
Kemy Amiche - Right Midfielder - Option Declined
Nick DePuy - Centre-back - Option Declined
Tyler Freeman - Centre-forward - Option Declined
Ahmed Longmire - Centre-back - Option Declined
Nebiyou Perry - Winger - Option Declined
Laurence Wyke - Centre-back - Option Declined
Ethan Zubak - Centre-forward - Option Declined
Luke Haakenson - Winger - Out of Contract
Dax McCarty - Central Midfielder - Out of Contract
Fafà Picault - Winger - Out of Contract
Incoming Players
Dru Yearwood - Central Midfielder - Acquired from New York Red Bulls in exchange for up to $150k in General Allocation Money (GAM)
Tyler Boyd - Winger - Traded from LA Galaxy for up to $775k in GAM and two international roster spots
McKinze Gaines - Winger - Acquired from Charlotte FC in exchange for second round draft pick
Rediscovering the Attacking Mojo
Nashville first and foremost need to fix their attack, and they've already taken steps by signing two wingers, Tyler Boyd and McKinze Gaines. I anticipate Boyd will likely start, while Gaines might provide depth or a rotational option.
Additionally, they've brought in midfielder Dru Yearwood. Yearwood and Sean Davis will be vying for Dax McCarty’s position given his exit.
There’s potential for more roster improvement if needed. For example, while another centre-back might be beneficial, Jack Maher has formed a solid partnership with Walker Zimmerman. In general, I wouldn’t expect any large splashes of money from Nashville which has always been their mantra.
Nashville kicks off early this season with their debut Concacaf Champions Cup match against Moca FC. They should breeze through their first matchup in CCC, but stranger things have happened at Cibao Stadium.
Projected Starting Lineup
I think we see a 4-2-3-1 this year to start. Boyd may at times start on the left with Gaines on the right, and there’s a few positional battles for midfield starting roles.