Philadelphia Union

2024 Season Preview

Jan 21, 2024

2023 MLS Regular Season Record: 15W - 10D - 9L

What I said last winter:

They’ll have a busy schedule but have the depth to support being successful across competitions
They’ll make a deep run into Concacaf Champions’ League
They’ll be in the running for Supporter’s Shield

What happened:

They advanced to the semi-finals for CCL and League’s Cup
They did regress in some areas and missed players due to injury and international duty
They weren’t necessarily close to Supporter’s Shield but still finished fourth in the conference and sixth overall
They were knocked out by Cincinnati in the MLS playoff conference semi-finals

Key Takeaways from 2023

Still great, but where’s the silverware?

The Philadelphia Union experienced another impressive season in 2023. However, despite their success in advancing in various competitions, they fell short of clinching any silverware. They were eliminated in the semi-finals of the Concacaf Champions’ League and League’s Cup, as well as the conference semi-finals for the MLS playoffs. Additionally, they regressed in a few stats this season, partly due to the absence of key players caused by injuries and national team duty.

Philadelphia deployed different formations, including the 4-3-1-2, 4-1-2-1-2, and even a 3-4-1-2 throughout the year. While the core lineup remained consistent, the three-back formation often featured Damion Lowe, with either Alejandro Bedoya or José Martínez making way.

Tactically, the Union like to press hard and advance numbers forward while attempting to force turnovers in the opponent’s half. Their attack was strong, although it did regress a bit from the previous year. In the end, they still finished in the top ten in shots and penalty area entries. However, their chance creation declined this year by almost one per game on average. In their MLS Cup final season, they finished first in the category.

Despite the dip in offensive performance, the Union concluded the season with a positive Goals minus Expected Goals performance of +3.6.

Both Daniel Gazdag and Julián Carranza finished with 14 goals, exceeding their expected goals of 13.6 and 12.2, respectively. Mikael Uhre scored 9 goals, surpassing his expected goals of 7.8.

Jack Elliot and Bedoya faced the largest deficits in Goals minus Expected Goals (G - xG), both scoring zero goals compared to expected values of 2.8 and 2.2, respectively.

In possession stats, this season closely mirrors the previous one. However, their rate of duels won dropped by about four per match compared to 2022. These numbers align with their style of play, so nothing overly concerning catches my attention.

I believe the area where Philadelphia regressed the most was in goalkeeping. This was partly due to starting keeper Andre Blake being absent for seven matches while playing with the Jamaican national team in the Gold Cup. Joe Bendik served as his stand-in during this period. Although they performed well, it was an MVP-caliber season from Blake in 2022, boasting an almost 80% save percentage, in contrast to the combined 69% across the two keepers this season.

The Union's post-shot expected goals performance of +.1 was a significant decline compared to the previous season. To provide context, Blake finished at +10 in 2022.

Bendik concluded with a net-negative post-shot expected goals (PSxG) of -4.0, whereas Blake ended the season with a positive +4.1.

Summing up the Union's season, it's characterized by small regressions that held significance. The lineup remained almost identical to the previous year, but the increased number of matches and injuries necessitated more rotation. Going into the next season, there are a few uncertainties surrounding key players, but some are already resolving in the Union's favor. Nevertheless, I'm beginning to wonder whether it's time for Philly to shake up their roster in certain areas to prevent stagnation.

Top Sorare Fantasy Performers

Numbers are across all competitions

Goalkeeper: Andre Blake | L15: 52 | 60+ pts games: 17 | Clean sheets: 14 | Penalties saved: 1

Midfielder: Daniel Gazdag | L15: 47 | 60+ pts games: 20 | Goals: 22 | Assists: 1

Forward : Julián Carranza | L15: 61 | 60+ pts games: 20 | Goals: 18 | Assists: 5

Extra: Mikael Uhre | L15: 48 | 60+ pts games: 15 | Goals: 11 | Assists: 5

2024 Outlook

Last updated 2/4/2024

DOOP Rating:

Outgoing Players

Anton Sorenson - Left-back - Option Declined

Joe Bendik - Goalkeeper - Out of Contract

Nelson Pierre - Centre-forward - Loaned to Skövde AIK

Andrés Perea - Defensive Midfielder - Transfer to NYCFC for up to $800k General Allocation Money (GAM)

Incoming Players

Sanders Ngabo - Central Midfielder - Transfer from Lyngby BK

Brandan Craig - Centre-back - Returns from loan at Austin FC

Isaiah LeFlore - Left-back - Signed from Houston Dynamo 2

Nick Pariano - Attacking Midfielder - Homegrown signing

Jamir Berdecio - Right-back - Loaned from Oriente Petrolero

Markus Anderson - Winger - Transfer from Rayo Majadajonda

Oliver Semmle - Goalkeeper - Transfer from Louisville City

Should they shake up the roster?

Heading into 2024, it appears that almost all players who had significant minutes towards the end of last year will return, except for Alejandro Bedoya. Bedoya is currently out of contract, and initial reports suggested he was not part of the club’s plans for the next year. However, this has evolved into ongoing discussions. On a positive note, Kai Wagner has recently signed a new contract, marking a significant win for Philadelphia. At the beginning of the offseason, there were indications that he might move to Europe for potentially higher wages, but he has now committed to an extension through 2026.

Concerning designated players, all are set to return, but I wonder about a potential move for Mikael Uhre. Despite scoring nine goals in the last regular season, I think the Union were hoping for more. The addition of Tai Baribo from the Austrian Bundesliga over the summer might provide alternatives, especially if Julián Carranza departs next summer, as he expressed in a recent interview.

Finally, the academy continues to showcase talent for the Philadelphia Union, with Quinn Sullivan's younger brother, Cavan Sullivan, gaining attention, including reported interest from Manchester City.

As of now, my overall assessment is that the Union will remain competitive in all competitions, including the Concacaf Champions League. However, there is a need for either Uhre or Daniel Gazdag to rediscover their 2022 form, or the Union to possibly consider moving for another DP striker.

Projected Starting Lineup

Part of me wonders if we see tactical tweaks, or if they return to more of a three back formation next year. For now, I’ll go with the 4-3-1-2.

Soccer, Stats, and Sorare

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