2023 MLS Regular Season Record: 11W - 10D - 13L
What I said last winter:
Evander was their big singing
They need a DP striker
The backline needs reinforcing
They start slow and then warm up as the season progresses
What happened:
Evander was important, but they struggled in consistent attacking form
They still need a DP striker
Quite a few players experienced season ending or long-term injuries
The defense struggled
They started slow, and unfortunately too slow because Giovanni Savarese was fired… however they did make a late season push for playoffs winning five of their last nine matches
Key Takeaways from 2023
End of the Savarese Era
FYI I structured this article differently, because I felt there was more to say about the FO and roster on the front end
The past year and a half have been challenging for the Portland Timbers organization. It started with the removal of then-general manager Gavin Wilkinson, who was placed on administrative leave and eventually fired, “As a result of the 2021 fallout of the scandal surrounding allegations that Paul Riley had sexually harassed Thorns players during his tenure as the club's coach (2014 to 2015).” Technical director Ned Grabavoy stepped in as Wilkinson's replacement for the Timbers.
Subsequently, following subpar performances in both the League's Cup and MLS, the club decided to part ways with manager Giovanni Savarese. Under Savarese's guidance, the Timbers had qualified for the playoffs in four of five seasons and reached the MLS Cup final twice, facing losses to Atlanta and New York City FC.
In addition to the managerial changes, the Timbers' roster underwent significant transformations with the departure of key players who had left a lasting impact over the past decade. Diego Valeri left after the 2021 season, Sebastian Blanco faced extended periods of absence in the last two seasons before departing, and others like Diego Chará and Larrys Mabiala are likely in their final year.
My overall take is the organization needs a reset, both culturally and in terms of the roster, to rejuvenate a fanbase that has lost trust in the front office. When Portland is performing well, Providence Park boasts one of the best atmospheres in MLS. Hopefully, 2023 can bring about that positive change.
The Numbers
Portland alternated between a 4-3-3 and a 4-2-3-1 formation throughout the season. The team suffered injuries to their midfield, with both David Alaya and Eryk Williamson sidelined for nearly the entire season due to ACL injuries. Other notable players who missed 10 or more matches include Felipe Mora, Jarosław Niezgoda, Yimmi Chará, and Sebastian Blanco. As a result, their starting lineups underwent frequent rotations.
Evander is the key figure in Portland’s attack, taking 70 percent of corners and nearly every free-kick shot on goal last season. Despite that, the club faced challenges in maintaining consistent attacking form before Savarese's departure. They finished in the middle of the table for goals but managed the seventh-most assists.
In terms of Goals minus Expected Goals, the Timbers finished with a positive margin at +2.9. Several players found success in front of the net, even with frequent rotations in the striker position. Notably, more goals were scored towards the end of the season when Portland went undefeated in seven matches, winning five.
Outperforming their expected goal (xG) numbers, key contributors for the Timbers included Evander (9 goals vs. 7.0 xG), Franck Boli (7 goals vs. 6.6 xG), Mora (6 goals vs. 4.5 xG), and Dairon Asprilla (5 goals vs. 2.9 xG).
Santiago Moreno, on the other hand, fell short of expectations with 3 goals compared to an expected 4.9.
In terms of possession, the Timbers' struggles are more statistically apparent. I'll start by saying I'm not an expert on their tactics, but based on my research, I don't believe this is a St. Louis or Red Bulls case where their style leads to such a low percentage for duels won and pass accuracy. Both stats were near the bottom of the league.
Goalkeeping was also a challenge for the Timbers as they ended the regular season with the fourth-worst save percentage and the third-most goals conceded. David Bingham and Aljaž Ivačič shared the goalkeeping duties throughout the season, but neither consistently delivered stellar performances. The Timbers' defending was also lacking, with opponents registering the tenth-most shots on target per match.
The goalkeeping duo finished second to last in post-shot expected goals with a performance of -6.8.
Both Bingham and Ivačič finished with -3.4 PSxG.
It was an unusual season for the Timbers. In typical Portland fashion, it seemed they might make a late-season push for the playoffs. However, losses to Houston and Montreal dashed those hopes. The initial part encapsulates my sentiments about the current state of the club, but perhaps Phil Neville can bring stability to an organization that’s been sliding for the last two years.
Top Sorare Fantasy Performers
Numbers are across all competitions
Goalkeeper: David Bingham | L15: 42 | 60+ pts games: 6 | Clean sheets: 6 | Penalties saved: 0
Defender: Claudio Bravo | L15: 46 | 60+ pts games: 6 | Goals: 2 | Assists: 1 | Clean sheets: 6
Midfielder: Evander | L15: 55 | 60+ pts games: 12 | Goals: 11 | Assists: 4
Forward: Felipe Mora | L15: 49 | 60+ pts games: 7 | Goals: 7 | Assists: 1
Extra: Santiago Moreno | L15: 54 | 60+ pts games: 8 | Goals: 3 | Assists: 6
2024 Outlook
Last Updated 2/4/2024
GIF Rating:
Outgoing Players
Bryan Acosta - Central Midfielder - Option Declined
Franck Boli - Centre-forward - Option Declined
Noel Caliskan - Central Midfielder - Option Declined
Diego Gutierrez - Centre-forward - Option Declined
Jaroslaw Niezgoda - Centre-forward - Option Declined
Justin Rasmussen - Left-back - Option Declined
David Bingham - Goalkeeper - Out of Contract (in talks with club for new contract)
Sebastián Blanco - Attacking Midfielder - Out of Contract
Incoming Players
Kamal Miller - Centre-back - Acquired from Miami for $775k in General Allocation Money (GAM) and an international roster spot
Trey Muse - Goalkeeper - Signed as a free agent
James Pantemis - Goalkeeper - Signed as a free agent
Maxime Crépeau - Goalkeeper - Signed as a free agent
Dr. Phil
Phil Neville was appointed in November to guide the club back on track, and interim coach Miles Joseph will continue on the coaching staff. The announcement of Neville elicited a mixed reaction on Twitter. While he wasn't hugely successful at Inter Miami, it's worth noting that he operated under various constraints in terms of roster flexibility.
Regarding the current roster, the Timbers have addressed some glaring issues in goalkeeping and defense. They traded a hefty sum of GAM to acquire Kamal Miller from Inter Miami, followed by the signings of former Montreal keeper James Pantemis and LAFC keeper Maxime Crépeau.
Portland is also set to regain David Alaya and Eryk Williamson from injury, although it may take a month or so before they see consistent minutes.
In terms of rumors, the major one revolves around Flamengo's interest in Evander. The Brazilian club is eager for a transfer, but Portland has thus far indicated a reluctance unless a substantial transfer fee is involved. If Evander departs, there could be concerns for their early-season prospects, given his crucial role in any success they found last year.
In terms of needs, a centre-forward and left winger are the most pertinent. Felipe Mora will start in the roster’s current state, but he has an injury history, and a DP winger would help the attack.
Currently, it appears to be a slow and steady build up for the Timbers this year. They have two designated player spots open on their roster, but it remains uncertain whether they'll make signings in the winter or wait until the summer.
Projected Starting Lineup
In the most recent friendly it sounds like Neville went with a 3-back formation, possibly a 3-4-3? The info is limited so it could very well be slightly different. Biggest questions for me going into week one will be who they start between Williamson and Paredes and if Mosquera moves up if it is a 3-4-3.