Soccer, Stats, and Sorare: Issue 9

Champions of the East and West

Feb 22, 2023

Favorable Week 1 Matchups

MLS IS BACK THIS WEEKEND

Below are my favorite matchups for Sorare and fantasy in general. If you enjoy this let me know, and I’ll continue to include it in future newsletters. The teams I favor are bolded.

FC Dallas vs. Minnesota United - No Reynoso and more than a few players will be missing due to injury and visa issues for Minnesota. At the moment I think Minnesota may be a contender for the worst offseason — even worse than Montreal — but possibly great for FC Dallas this weekend.

Austin FC vs. St. Louis City - Trial by fire for St. Louis isn’t a great way to start your MLS history, and that’s what their matchup against Austin FC and Sebastián Driussi will be. I could see St. Louis sneaking a goal in, but it may be a rough first week for the new club.

FC Cincinnati vs. Houston Dynamo - This will be a great way to make a statement on what Cincinnati wants to accomplish this season. The Dynamo added a lot of pieces this year, but it won’t be easy against a team I called out as a Supporters’ Shield contender last week.

Inter Miami vs. CF Montreal - CF Montreal did next to nothing to bring in starting caliber players between when I wrote my piece on them and now. They’ll also be without Matko Miljevic for 2-3 months. Hernán Losada and management will likely receive a wake-up call to sign some players this weekend.

Preseason Outlook

So I managed to get through 18 teams in less than two months. For most leagues, this would be everyone, but MLS has 29 clubs. I’ll continue this series into March and should wrap it up by the end of the month. The lesson learned is to start writing earlier next fall. We’ll just call it Early Season Outlook going forward.

Philadelphia Union

← Out (2022 Season)

Kacper Pryzbylko - Forward - Traded to Chicago Fire for $1.15 in General Allocation Money (GAM)
Jamiro Monteiro - Midfielder - Traded to San Jose Earthquakes for up to $450k in GAM
Alvas Powell - Right-back - Signed with FC Cincinnati as a free agent
Sergio Santos - Forward - Traded to FC Cincinnati during summer window for $925k in GAM and up to 50% of future trade to another MLS club

→ In (2022 Season)

Mikael Uhre - Forward - Transferred from Brøndby IF for $2.8 million
Jesús Bueno - Defensive Midfielder - Transferred from Deportivo Lara for undisclosed transfer fee
Julián Carranza- Forward - Loaned from Inter Miami FC and eventually transferred for $500k in GAM
Richard Odada - Defensive Midfielder - Transferred from Red Star Belgrade for undisclosed transfer fee

So Close

Today’s preview focuses on two teams who did it all right. In most of my previews, I’ve mentioned what went wrong, but not today. The Philadelphia Union are probably one of the greatest teams in MLS to not win the Supporters’ Shield or MLS Cup in a season.

The year began with trading one of their leading scorers Kacper Pryzbylko to the Chicago Fire and bringing in Mikael Uhre from Brøndby IF. After bringing in Uhre, the Union managed to swing one of those moves in MLS that look better and better each year for the club. Julián Carranza was loaned to Philly and eventually transferred permanently.

The Union deployed Carranza and Uhre in a 4-4-2 system that would turn into one of the most lethal attacks in the league.

Projected Starting 11 for 2023 from MLS Soccer Staff. Same Starting 11 from 2022.

The Union went on to score 72 goals and allow 26. I want to say this might be a league record, but I couldn't find a quick fact sheet to confirm.

So how did they do it? Dominate possession? Nope. The Union only beat their opponents in possession percentage in nine games last season. Philly opts to counter their opponents or press high up the field. I won't go super deep into their tactics, but in a writeup, by The Analyst, they provide better data and explanation.

But yeah, lots of forced duels, lots of interceptions, and lots of won possession are how the Union roll. Their ratio of wins/losses in those stat categories isn’t high, but their attack and goalkeeping make up for that. 2022 Goalkeeper of the Year Andre Blake arguably had an MVP-level season. The best save percentage, most clean sheets, least goals conceded per match, and second-best performance in post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed (PSxG+/-). Blake was tremendous in goal but also has an excellent back-line to support him.

Meanwhile, the Philly attack scored goals. A bunch of goals. They overachieved their xG by a wide margin. Midfielder Dániel Gazdag had an xG total of 16.2 and scored 22 goals while Uhre complimented him with 13 goals and an xG of 8.1. They also faired well off of set pieces with 12 goals from non-penalty set pieces. This team was fantastic at every level.

Unfortunately… so was another team on the West coast. The Union finished first in the Eastern Conference and tied the Western Conference champions LAFC in points but had fewer wins which is the tiebreaker for the Supporters’ Shield. The Union then advanced to the MLS Cup final and lost in one of the most epic matches I’ve ever seen when a 10-man LAFC equalized in extra time with a Gareth Bale header, and LAFC went on to win in PKs.

2023 Season Outlook

← Out (2023 Season)

Paxten Aaronson - Midfielder - Transferred to Eintracht Frankfurt for $4 million, add-ons, and sell on percentage
Matt Freese - Goalkeeper - Traded to New York City FC for up to $750k in GAM and a sell-on fee

→ In (2023 Season)

Andrés Perea - Defensive Midfielder - Acquired from Orlando City for up to $850k in GAM and sell-on fee
Joaquín Torres - Winger - Acquired from CF Montreal for up to $800k in GAM
Damion Lowe - Centre-back - Acquired from Inter Miami for $225k in GAM

There isn’t much change in the Union this season. They did lose their backup keeper Matt Freese in a trade with NYCFC and Paxten Aaronson was transferred to Bundesliga. However, both players weren’t in the starting 11 normally.

PhilaUnion @PhilaUnion

Thanks for the memories, Paxten 🤩 #DOOP

What Philly has done this year is add additional depth. The Union will play in CONCACAF Champions’ League (CCL) starting in March, which can be tough on teams who are thin at depth. However, because of their academy and the preseason moves they’ve made, I’m not worried about them compared to other teams in the competition. However, expect rotation when they have back-to-back league and CCL games.

I fully expect Philly to be in the running for the Supporters’ Shield again. With CCL teams, it’s usually less likely, but as I said before, Philly has the depth to compete simultaneously in both competitions. I also expect the Union to make a deep run in CCL this year. Hell, I think they could win the entire competition.

Philadelphia Union Sorare Stack

Goalkeeper: Andre Blake is the best goalkeeper in MLS. He’ll start, but did allude to interest in going to Europe one day in a recent interview.

Defender: Kai Wagner is one of the most expensive defenders in MLS for a reason. He has big score potential because he takes corners and indirect freekicks while registering great all-around scores due to the number of clean sheets Philly had last year. I think there is still a chance he leaves this summer, but he’ll be great for all the midweek matches Philly have for CCL.

Midfielder: Dániel Gazdag was on the same level as Driussi and MVP Mukhtar in terms of his goals to xG ratio. His L15 is a bit lower than them, but that’s because he came off the bench in matches with the Hungarian national team. No other midfielder will have as many chances at decisives than Gazdag on this squad.

Forward: This is a tough call. Mikael Uhre or Julián Carranza? The answer is yes. Both are very viable options and have great scoring potential. Uhre sat out a little in preseason, but that doesn’t worry me. Uhre had 13 goals, four assists, and three PK’s won, while Carranza registered 15 goals and seven assists. My preference is Uhre, but either one is is a great choice. Carranza is also eligible for U23 competitions.

Extra: Because of the strength in Philly’s defense, a double defender stack is my suggestion. This also mitigates against only Uhre or Carranza scoring versus if the defense plays well they all typically benefit. Jack Elliot scored above 60 in SO5 17 times last season, and so did his CB partner Jakob Glesnes. It’s similar to the forward situation. I don’t think you could go wrong with either one. I will mention that Glesnes is good for an absolute banger at last once a season.

James Nalton @JDNalton

Philadelphia Union centre-back Jakob Glesnes with a rocket of a goal vs Atlanta #Golazo #DOOP