2023 MLS Regular Season Record: 17W - 5D - 12L
Key Takeaways from 2023
What I said last winter:
Despite many contrary opinions, I thought they had a sound strategic approach to constructing the inaugural roster
Predicted they would secure a playoff spot
I did have concerns about their backline following Joakim Nilsson's injury
What happened:
St. Louis City defied critics, clinching the top spot in the western conference in their inaugural year
Despite significant injuries, notably to key player João Klauss, the club had one of the best attacks in MLS
Roman Bürki was excellent in goal in his first season in MLS
Later in the season their performance stagnated, culminating in a disappointing loss to rival club Sporting Kansas City in the playoffs' first round — SKC were the last seeded team.
Silencing the Doubters
St. Louis City FC's remarkable debut season emerged as one of MLS' most surprising and impressive storylines this past year. Initially brushed off as luck, their consistent string of victories left no doubt St. Louis deserved to be at the top of their conference.
St. Louis lined up most often in a 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1. They rotated their attacking setup more often than they may have preferred due to injuries, but, regardless of who started, players delivered consistently strong performances.
Head coach Bradley Carnell joined St. Louis after five seasons at New York Red Bulls, pledging an attacking style of play, and he delivered. Despite creating the fourth-lowest number of significant chances, St. Louis scored the league's third-most goals. Their finishing was exceptional. And… they were also handed a few easy goals early in the season, but that shouldn’t detract from their attacking prowess.
The biggest note for St. Louis is their Goals - Expected Goals. The club finished at the top of the league in this category. While some of St. Louis's goals might have been fortunate, I view this metric as a reflection of their shooting precision rather than mere luck.
Several players exceeded that their expected goal counts are: Nicholas Giocchini (10 goals vs. 7.5 xG), Klauss (10 goals vs. 5.8 xG), and Samuel Adeniran (8 goals vs. 3.9 xG). The only player who fell slightly below their expected tally was midfielder Aziel Jackson.
Glancing at the chart below, I couldn't help but think, “What in the Red Bulls!?” Carnell swiftly incorporated Red Bull tactics into St. Louis.
Their approach involved relentless pressing, a factor reinforcing my belief that their attacking success wasn't merely luck. They disrupted opponents in their own half, swiftly transitioning into goal-scoring opportunities when the opposition's defense wasn't organized.
I remember the considerable criticism directed at St. Louis for the hefty sum paid for their goalkeeper, Roman Bürki. However, the former Dortmund backup silenced the critics with a stellar performance, earning Goalkeeper of the Year for his excellent performance throughout the season. Bürki boasted the highest number of shots saved inside the box and the third-highest save percentage in the league.
He also posted the best individual post-shot expected goal stat among goalkeepers in MLS — +9.1. He started all but one match.
Despite their achievements, St. Louis experienced a dip in form towards the season's end, resulting in a loss to the lowest-seeded club in the playoffs across two legs. It seems opponents discovered that forcing St. Louis to possess the ball could be a way to counter their style. I’ll note that it makes for miserable soccer to watch because Atlanta does the same to Red Bulls whenever they’re in New York.
2024 is an opportunity for St. Louis to tweak their tactics, bring in additional talent, and build on the successes of 2023. They’ll also play in Concacaf Champions’ Cup against a very strong opponent, the Houston Dynamo.
Top Sorare Fantasy Performers
Goalkeeper: Roman Bürki | L15: 40 | 60+ pts games: 10 | Clean sheets: 8 | Penalties saved: 0
Defender: Tim Parker | L15: 49 | 60+ pts games: 10 | Goals: 5 | Assists: 0 | Clean sheets: 8
Midfielder: Eduard Löwen | L15: 50 | 60+ pts games: 13 | Goals: 6 | Assists: 9
Forward : Klauss | L15: 43 | 60+ pts games: 10 | Goals: 10 | Assists: 2
Forward: Nicholas Gioacchini | L15: 35 | 60+ pts games: 10 | Goals: 10 | Assists: 1
2024 Outlook
Last Updated 2/4/2024
GIF Rating:
Outgoing Players
Max Schneider - Central Midfielder - Option Declined
Michael Creek - Goalkeeper - Option Declined
John Nelson - Left-back - Out of Contract
Jonathan Bell - Centre-back - Out of Contract
Jared Stroud - Winger - Traded to DC United in trade for Chris Durkin
Lucas Bartlett - Centre-back - Traded to DC United in trade for Chris Durkin
Miguel Perez - Central Midfielder - Loaned to Birmingham Legion
Nicholas Gioacchini - Centre-forward - Transferred to Como 1907
Incoming Players
Chris Durkin - Defensive Midfielder - Traded Jared Stroud, Lucas Bartlett, and $300k General Allocation Money (GAM)
Tomas Totland - Right-back - Transferred from BK Häcken for undisclosed transfer fee
Nikolas Dyhr - Left-back - Transfer from FC Midtjylland
Wasting No Time
St. Louis has already taken steps to bolster their squad for the upcoming season. Chris Durkin, reuniting with Klauss from their time together at Sint-Truidense, joins from DC United. Additionally, Thomas Totland arrives from the Swedish first division and Nikolas Dyhr from Denmark. Both are fullbacks, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Dyhr is envisioned as more of a left-midfielder in St. Louis’ system.
In terms of needs, no positions stand out to me. The areas they needed to improve they already have. St. Louis did transfer out Nicholas Gioacchini, but they have lots of options at the forward position, and Klauss is the presumed starter.
However, the key question for me lies in their lineup. Based on their most recent friendly against the LA Galaxy, St. Louis lined up in the 4-4-2. There’s competition for most spots of the midfield, which makes it tough to say who starts in their Concacaf Champions’ Cup match against Houston.
Overall, I’m optimistic St. Louis continue their 2023 form going into the new season, but my only concern is how opponents seemed to crack the code on their tactics at the end of last year. They pressured St. Louis into ball possession, neutralizing their pressing style. Carnell will need to regroup his staff and make sure they have a plan in place for when teams force their side to dominate possession.