2023 MLS Regular Season Record: 4W - 10D - 20L
What I said last winter:
Pat on the back for the signings they made, but they needed to get a centre-forward
Bob Bradley will be on a short leash if things don’t go right
No excuses for this team not to make playoffs
What happened:
So much went wrong. Drama in the squad reported on by the Athletic, just generally poor play, and Bob Bradley was fired in June
Lorenzo Insigne couldn’t stay healthy and rumors of his and Federico Bernardeschi’s transfer ramped up more each week
Former Canada Men’s team manager John Herdman was hired to take over the organization and revamp the squad’s culture that had become reportedly toxic
Key Takeaways from 2023
North America’s Most Expensive Spoon
Where do I even begin? I had so many hopes for last to work for Toronto, and so much disappointment.
Let's start with the Athletic article that came out in May. High-level summary: Federico Bernardeschi was stirring trouble among the squad's leadership and management. Some of it was reportedly related to him not receiving the same treatment or benefits as his Italian counterpart Lorenzo Insigne, causing a significant rift in the locker room.
Adding to this, the roster rebuilding they undertook last year completely fell flat. Without sounding overly critical, relying on TFC's president to look at the most valuable players in Italy coming free on Transfermarkt might not be the best strategy in modern MLS. It's also the second consecutive season where most signings ended up being a complete miss for the organization.
And the icing on top? Toronto had the highest reported guaranteed compensation in Spring 2023 across all of MLS at $25.74 million and still managed to finish last in the overall standings, earning them the award for — drum roll — the most expensive wooden spoon! Yes, I think Miami passed them in compensation once Messi joined, but Toronto truly earned this honorary title regardless.
Toronto most often lined up in a 4-3-3 formation last season. Insigne and Bernardeschi would play on the wings, and, after a constant rotation of center-forwards, Deandre Kerr seemed to start the most. The midfield was also heavily rotated due to injuries, but most often included Brandon Servania, Jonathan Osorio, and Alonso Coello. Starting goalkeeper Sean Johnson unfortunately also suffered a multi-month injury but was their main keeper for the season.
In terms of Toronto’s attack, it was poor. They ranked last in big chances created, second-to-last in goals and assists, and sixth-to-last in shots on target. Insigne missed almost half of the regular season matches, and the club struggled to find any semblance of consistent scoring. They were also dead last in penalty area entries for nearly the entire season.
Toronto finished with a -5.6 margin for Goals Minus Expected Goals. While not the worst performance among clubs, they struggled even with their limited number of shots.
The only players to finish net-positive in G - xG were Kerr (5 goals vs. 4.1 xG), Osorio (4 goals vs. 3.1 xG), Mark-Anthony Kaye (2 goals vs. 1.2 xG), and Richie Laryea (2 goals vs. 0.8 xG). Laryea and Kaye left in the summer transfer window, and none of the players had more than 21 total shots.
Bernardeschi finished right at his expected total with 5 goals, and Insigne (4 goals vs. 5.4 xG) and C.J. Sapong (1 goal vs. 2.7 xG) were two of the biggest underachievers.
In terms of possession stats, they fared well in many categories, and they held the majority of possession in almost half of their games. However, this didn't help their other areas much and could be a reflection of opposing teams being ahead and willing to allow them to dominate possession more.
Goalkeeping and defending posed significant challenges for the squad last year. TFC conceded the second-most goals and allowed the sixth-most shots on target. The goalkeeping quartet of Johnson, Luka Gavran, Tomas Romero, and Greg Ranjitsingh finished with the fourth-lowest save percentage and post-shot expected goals.
Johnson finished the season with -2.8 post-shot expected goals (PSxG) in his 20 starts, while Ranjitsingh finished at -2.9. On the other hand, Gavran and Romero ended net positive with +0.7 and +0.8, respectively.
While there aren’t many positives to take away from last year, there still are some. Notably, John Herdman taking on the manager role I consider a win for TFC. I admire what Herdman achieved with the Canadian national team, and from his pre-season press conferences, it seems he is taking the necessary steps to address the cultural issues that plagued the squad last year. Also, it really can’t get any worse... at least I hope.
Top Sorare Fantasy Performers
Numbers are across all competitions
Goalkeeper: Sean Johnson | L15: 38 | 60+ pts games: 7 | Clean sheets: 7 | Penalties saved: 0
Defender: Petretta | L15: 43 | 60+ pts games: 5 | Goals: 0 | Assists: 1 | Clean sheets: 4
Midfielder: Federico Bernardeschi | L15: 41 | 60+ pts games: 7 | Goals: 5 | Assists: 2
Forward : Lorenzo Insigne | L15: 61 | 60+ pts games: 10 | Goals: 4 | Assists: 4
Extra: Jonathan Osorio | L15: 52 | 60+ pts games: 8 | Goals: 5 | Assists: 4
2024 Outlook
Last Updated 2/4/2024
GIF Rating:
Outgoing Players
Greg Ranjitsingh - Goalkeeper - Option Declined
Tomás Romero - Goalkeeper - Option Declined
Themi Antonoglou - Left-back - Option Declined
Víctor Vázquez - Attacking Midfielder - Option Declined
CJ Sapong - Centre-forward - Option Declined
Cristian Gutierrez - Left-back - Out of Contract
Franco Ibarra - Defensive Midfielder - Loan Expires
Michael Bradley - Central Midfielder - Retired
Incoming Players
Kosi Thompson - Right Midfielder - Returns from loan (Lillestrøm SK has an option to buy)
Ayo Akinola - Centre-forward - Returns from loan
Deybi Flores - Defensive Midfielder - Transfer from Fehérvár FC
Calm before… the storm?
It's been a very quiet transfer window for Toronto. The only transfer involves signing Deybi Flores from the Hungarian league. This, for me, is worrying. As mentioned earlier, their roster building hasn’t worked out well in the last two years, and I'm unsure how well the current squad fits together.
The most immediate needs in the roster, I believe, are a center-back and another central midfielder. Brandon Servania tore his ACL at the end of last season, so he will miss a decent chunk of the new season, and they no longer have Victor Vazquez and Franco Ibarra. They do have Latif Blessing, but more depth is needed regardless. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they bring in another full-back or two.
The other big question is who starts up top at center-forward. In a recent preseason press conference, Herdman mentioned Deandre Kerr as showing lots of improvement and great work ethic. So maybe it’s Kerr, but they also have Ayo Akinola returning from loan and Prince Osei Owusu available.
At the moment, I don’t think we'll see a giant turnaround from Toronto this season. I think they'll be better, but they need time to understand what is missing in whatever tactics Herdman decides to deploy at the start of the year. Hopefully, by summer, they know and can make the appropriate roster moves.
Projected Starting Lineup
I’m going with a 4-3-3 for now, but I think there’s a chance we see a possible 3-4-2-1 or other three-back formations based on how Herdman lined up the squad at the end of the year. However, that means they’ll definitely need to sign another centre-back.