2023 MLS Regular Season Record: 11W - 10D - 13L
Key Takeaways from 2023
The Streak Continues…
Different season, same story. Despite being the emblem of an energy drink, the New York Red Bulls are still without a cup. Admittedly, my expectations for the squad last year were quite low, and they managed to exceed them to some extent.
However, the season started with only one win in their initial 11 matches, and amidst the controversy surrounding the decision not to substitute Dante Vanzeir, who was alleged to have used racist language during a match, New York chose to part ways with head coach Gerhard Struber.
Troy Lesesne assumed the role of interim head coach and remained in that position for the rest of the year. Lesesne guided the Red Bulls to the playoff round, defeating Charlotte in the play-in, but ultimately lost to Cincinnati in the second match of a best-of-three series.
Throughout the year, the Red Bulls switched between a 4-2-3-1 and a 4-4-2 formation. The 4-2-3-1 was more frequently employed under Struber and was eventually phased out mid-year. Tactically, there are notable similarities to St. Louis' style, but that's because the manager at St. Louis is a Red Bulls alum. So really, it should be said that St. Louis' style is akin to that of the Red Bulls.
The most significant contrast between the two clubs lies in their scoring prowess. While St. Louis found the back of the net through a variety of players, New York grappled with goal-scoring until midway through the year. They ended up fourth to last in goals scored, and were it not for their last few weeks, the position would have been even lower. Their performance in creating chances lagged behind the league average, and on those opportunities, they rarely found the net.
And here's where it gets worse. The Red Bulls had a Goals minus Expected Goals difference of -12.8, the worst in the league. Only one player significantly outperformed their differential, and that was Frankie Amaya (5 goals vs. 2.0 xG). John Tolkin (3 goals vs. 2.8 xG) and Omir Fernandez (6 goals vs. 5.8 xG) performed right around their expected totals.
Several players underperformed in Goals minus Expected Goals (G - xG), including Tom Barlow (3 goals vs. 6.9 xG), Elias Manoel (3 goals vs. 5.9 xG), and Cory Burke (2 goals vs. 4.8 xG). Whether you attribute it to bad luck or suboptimal shot-taking — the perspective I typically lean towards in such situations — the Red Bulls faced challenges in finishing.
In terms of possession, it's business as usual in the Red Bulls' system. Quoting Matt Doyle's article on their 2023 season:
pure murderball. Red Bull, as usual, pressed higher and harder than anybody in the league, and they (surprise) won the ball higher than anybody in the league, yadda yadda yadda.
They do not care about completing passes – they trade possession for field position.
All I'll add to Matt's commentary is my opinion that it's the least aesthetic soccer to watch. I usually pass on watching when Atlanta travels to Red Bull Arena.
Defensively, the Red Bulls were sound, allowing the lowest average shots on target per match and conceding the sixth-fewest goals. In general, scoring against them is tough, and in matches I’ve observed, it appears like the opponent is content with a 1-0 win or a draw. Their style is disruptive and poses challenges for various tactics across MLS.
In terms of post-shot expected goals, the Red Bulls finished right at 0.0, and Carlos Coronel, who played every match, is responsible for maintaining this perfect balance. In fairness, he didn't face as much action as other keepers throughout the season.
Despite deploying their style effectively, this team wasn't any closer to a successful year, and it hasn't been for a while. Historically, this is a club that hasn't invested much in transfers and either needs a young talent to step up or find a way to bring in a playmaker at a low cost. So far, they've leaned towards the latter with the reported addition of Emil Forsberg for around $5 million.
Top Sorare Fantasy Performers
Goalkeeper: Carlos Coronel | L15: 43 | 60+ pts games: 13 | Clean sheets: 11 | Penalties saved: 2
Defender: John Tolkin | L15: 56 | 60+ pts games: 15 | Goals: 4 | Assists: 10 | Clean sheets: 9
Midfielder: Omir Fernandez | L15: 40 | 60+ pts games: 11 | Goals: 7 | Assists: 4
Forward : Elias Manoel | L15: 44 | 60+ pts games: 7 | Goals: 7 | Assists: 3
Forward: Frankie Amaya | L15: 48 | 60+ pts games: 5 | Goals: 5 | Assists: 1
2024 Outlook
Last Updated 2/4/2024
GIF Rating (I have no idea why this GIF exists, but I’m glad it does):
Outgoing Players
Matt Nocita - Centre-back - Option Declined
Hassan Ndam - Centre-back - Option Declined
Jayden Reid - Left-back - Option Declined
Steven Serwadda - Central Midfielder - Option Declined
Omir Fernandez - Winger - Out of Contract
Jorge Cabezas-Hurtado - Centre-forward -Loan expired
Tom Barlow - Centre-forward - Transferred to Chicago Fire for up to $400k in Target-Allocation Money (TAM)
Dru Yearwood - Central Midfielder - Traded to Nashville in exchange for up to $150k in General Allocation Money (GAM)
Luquinhas - Attacking Midfielder - Transfer to Fortaleza for $3m
Incoming Players
Kyle Duncan - Loan transfer option exercised
Emil Forsberg - Attacking Midfielder - Transfer from Red Bulls Leipzig for ~$5m
Noah Eile - Centre-back - Transfer from Malmö FF
Roald Mitchell - Centre-forward - Homegrown signing
Another Change in Management
The Red Bulls have arguably made one of their best signings in… a while, at least in my opinion. Emil Forsberg was transferred from Red Bulls Leipzig over the winter window and signed a three-year contract with New York. Forsberg has been in the Red Bulls system for close to a decade now, and brings leadership and familiarity with their tactical style. The Red Bulls also added Noah Eile from Malmö, which is interesting given how defensively solid they were.
Other notable moves include the departures of Omir Fernandez, Tom Barlow, Dru Yearwood, and Luquinhas. While all four featured often in the starting eleven last season, none feel like a significant loss for the club.
And lest we forget, the club decided not to offer a contract to interim manager Troy Lesesne and instead brought in Sandro Schwarz, who has coached in the German and Russian top flights. After researching his past tactics, it seems he favors a style that meshes well with the Red Bulls' "murderball" and most often lined up in a 4-3-3 while at Hertha Berlin. Max Bergmann summed up his Mainz tactics with:
Diagonal Balls
Counter-pressing
High FBs
Through passes and crosses
Given the focus of pushing full-backs up, John Tolkin will be a key player for their success I think, but the question still on my mind is how will they improve their scoring efficiency? Dante Vanzeir will likely feature, but New York have one more designated player spot open. If they move back to the 4-2-3-1, I can see them signing another winger to play on the left, with Forsberg as their CAM, and Lewis Morgan, who is finally back from injury, on the right.
Given the focus on pushing full-backs up, John Tolkin will be a key player for their success, but the question still on my mind is how they will improve their scoring efficiency. Dante Vanzeir will likely feature, but New York has one more designated player spot open. If they revert to the 4-2-3-1, I can see them signing another winger to play on the left, with Forsberg as their CAM, and Lewis Morgan, who is finally back from injury, on the right.
Overall, I'm going to hold my applause until I see the results on the pitch. The past few years have been rather whelming for the Red Bulls fanbase, as reflected in the tepid support showing up weekly at Red Bull Arena. Thirty years without a cup will do that to you.